ECONOMICS OF CRIME
  FIRST-YEAR ODYSSEY (F1001)
OUTLINE OF NOTES
DAVID B. MUSTARD
------------------------------------------------- Tue. 8/15

Administration 

1.  Syllabus

2.  Personal Introduction
    A. Education -Why study economics?
    B. Research
    C. Family
    D. Background/Interests
    E. Unique items

3.  Classroom Dynamics
    A. I will ask you many questions in class.
    B. Student Questions: Your asking questions is just as important as my asking questions. Ask in class, during office hours, or at the start of each class.
    C. Review Class Website
    D. Evaluate both sides of an argument.
    E. Disagree without being disrespectful.
    F. Electronic devices

4.  How to do well
    A. Principle of quality repetitions--needed to excel in anything
        1) Come to class
        2) Class website provides an outline and guide
        3) Do reading as it is being covered in class--an outline of notes is available ahead of time
        4) Talk to me in and outside of class
    B. Learn tools of economics - graphs, words and equations
    C. Talk to me before, rather than after exams

5. Dates
    8/15    First Day of Class
    Ten-week schedule tentatively
       August: 15, 22, 29
       Sep: 5, 12, 19, (tentatively off 9/27 or 10/3)
       Oct: 3, 10, 17, 24

1. Crime Data

A. Two Sources of Crime Data
    1. Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reports (Crime in the US-2014)
       a. Time Period
       b. How are the data compiled?
       c. What crimes are included?
       d. Rates v. Levels
       e. Strengths and weaknesses and reliability
       f. Summary based reporting v. National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS)
       g. Other crime data: Persons Arrests by Type of Crime, Crime by Colleges and Universities, Police Employee Data, Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted, Hate Crime Statistics,
------------------------------------------------- Tue. 8/22
    2. National Victimization Survey (Bureau of Justice Statistics)
       a. Time Period
       b. How are the data compiled?
       c. What crimes are included?
       d. Rates v. Levels
       e. Strengths and weaknesses and reliability
       f. Other crime data
    3.
Comparing the UCR with the NVS
    4. Crime Trends
       a. Over time: Since 1960.
       b. National Victimization Analysis Tool.
       c. By region, town, city, etc. (UCR)
    5. Reflections on own estimates
       a. Were your estimates right or wrong?
       b. How far off were you?
       c. Why
       d. Can you begin to articulate hypotheses about what affects crime?
   
B. What Has Happened to Crime?
    1. Uniform Crime Reports
 
   2. Crime over time
    3. Composition of crime
    4. Crime across regions
        a. Regions of country
        b. US, Atlanta, Athens - 
Table 12
    5. Crime across countries
    6. Crime data of many types
    7. Can you articluate hypotheses about what affects crime?

2. Introduction to Economics of Crime

    Readings: Becker, Gary S. "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Life," The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, Issue 3 (June 1993): 383-409.

A. What is Economics?
    1. Misconception
    2. Definition
    3. Principle/Theory
    4. Goal
    5. Economics is Different fro

B. What is the economics of crime?

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3. Guns and Crime
     A. Introduction:
    B.
What challenges exist in understanding the relationship between firearms and crime?
    C. Just the Facts Gun Quiz
        1. How often are guns used to commit crime in the US?
           a. NIJ Data.
           b.

        2. Self-defensive uses of guns
           a. How do we estimate SDUs?
           b. What challenges do we face in estimating SDUs?
               1) What problems from section #3 apply here?
               2) Estimates from NCVS
           c. What do the data on SDUs show?
           d. How many SDUs did you estimate?
           e. Why were you so wrong?
        3. Accidental Deaths due to guns
           a. How do we get data on accidental deaths?
           Injury Facts, National Safety Council
           b. What do the data on SDUs show?
           c. How many accidental deaths did you estimate?
           d. Why were you wrong?
        4. Suicide
           a. Suicide map
           b. Suicides by causes (total, guns and other causes)
        5. Murders
------------------------------------------------- Tue. 9/5
    D. What is the theory? (Economics is about how people respond to incentives)
        1. How do guns affect crime?

         2. How do we expect limiting guns will affect crime?
        3. How does it matter how firearms are distributed?
        4. How do people respond?
    E. Gun Control Laws
       1. When evaluating laws pertaining to guns, consider
           a. Theory: how will the laws affect both crime and defensive uses of guns?
           b. Data: What type of information would help us address problem?
       2. Types of laws
           a. Assault weapons bans
        
   Supplemental Readings: 
              Fields, Gary. 2016.
"Q&A: What is an 'Assault Weapon'?" The Wall St. Journal. June 13.
              Richman, Josh. 2013. "Assault Weapons: What are they, and Should they be Banned?" The Mercury News. Jan. 17.

               1) Laws:
               2) Theory
               3) Data
               4) Challenges to implementation
               5) Evidence
           b. Limits on magazine capacity
               1) Laws:
               2) Theory
               3) Data
               4) Challenges to implementation
               5) Evidence
           c. Waiting Periods
           Supplemental Reading: 
               "Waiting Periods." Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence.
              1) Federal law
              2) State laws
           d.
"One-gun per month" or bulk buying laws
              1) Theory
              2) Data
              3) Evidence
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    Hurricane Irma--No Class 

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           e. Bans
              1) Where have bans been implemented?
                  a) In US
                  b) In Other nations
              2) What are murder rates before and after?
           Supplemental Reading: 
               2013. "Murder and Homicide Rates Before and After Gun Bans." Crime Prevention Research Center. Dec. 1.

------------------------------------------------- Tue. 9/19
           f. Concealed carry laws
           Readings: 
               Bandler, Aaron. 2016.
"Report: Concealed Carry Permit Holders Are the Most Law-Abiding People in the Country." The Daily Wire.
           Supplemental Reading: 
               Lott, John R., Jr., John E. Whitley, and Rebekah C. Riley. 2015. "Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States." Crime Prevention Research Center.
               Kleck, Gary. 1997. "Guns and Self-Defense" (Chapter 5) in Targeting Guns, New York: Aldine de Gruyer.

              1) Definition of concealed carry laws
              2) History and locations
              3) Who carries (by state, gender, race)
              4) Permit holder criminality

       3. Should concealed carry holders be permitted to carry guns on campus?
          
Readings: 
               Con: West, Sonja. 2016.
"The Real Danger of Guns in Schools." Slate, March 22.
                       "Guns in Schools." Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence.
               Pro: Lott, John R., Jr. 2016. "It's About Time for Texas' Guns on Campus Law." Fox News Opinion. Aug. 1.
               Administrative: Chancellor Steve Wrigley. 2017. "Letter to the University System of Georgia Community Concerning House Bill 280", May 24.
           Supplemental Reading from 2016:
               Georgia House Bill 859.
               Bluestein, Greg. 2016. "Nathan Deal Fires a Warning Shot on Campus Carry Measure." AJC.com. March 14.   


          a. What states allow carry on campus?
             Examples: "Guns on Campus: Overview." National Conference of State Legislatures. 5/31/2016.
                           " Guns on Campus: Campus Action." National Conference of State Legislatures. March 2012.
          b. Reasons against
          c. Reasons for
              Deter or stop shootings: "Cases where concealed handgun permit holders have stopped public shootings."

              Lott, John R., Jr., John E. Whitley, and Rebekah C. Riley. 2015. "Concealed Carry Revocation Rates by Age" Crime Prevention Research Center, March 6, pages 5-7.
              "Compiling Cases where oncealed handgun permit holders have stopped mass public shootings and other mass attacks."
Crime Prevention Research Center, Sep. 20, 2016.

------------------------------------------------- Tue. 9/26

6. Sentencing Disparities (Race, Gender, Ethnicity, Income, etc.)
           Supplemental Readings: 
               Mustard, David B. 2001.
"Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Disparities in Sentencing: Evidence from the US Federal Courts." Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 44, No. 1: 285-314.
    A. How is sentencing done?
        1. Determinate
        2. Ideterminate Sentencing
        3. Providing Assistance
        4. Mandatory Minima and Three-Strikes Laws
    B. What evidence is there for differences?
    C. What types of biases exist in determining whether there are differences?
    D. Discrimination or just differences?


------------------------------------------------- Tue. 10/3

    No Class
------------------------------------------------- Tue. 10/10

7. Labor Markets and Crime
    Readings: Mustard, David B. 2014. "Labor markets and crime: new evidence on an old puzzle," The Handbook on the Economics of Crime.
     A. Theory: How do we expect labor market opportunities to affect crime?
     B. What did most of the empirical work until about 2000 show find about the relationship between labor market opportunities and crime?
    C. Why did the empirical work conclude such results?

         What challenges make it hard to establish a relationship between labor markets and crime?
    D. How do you address those challenges?
    E. When those problems are addressed, how does that affect the results?


------------------------------------------------- Tue. 10/17
8. Human Trafficking
          Readings:
        
  United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, "Global Report on Trafficking in Persons." Executive Summary (pages 8-12), Legislative report (22-25)
          Supplemental Readings:
     
    FBI Report on Human Trafficking.
          2016. "Trafficking in Persons Report." US Department of State.

    A. Definition (US State Dept, p. 9)
    B. Trends
        1. How Many?
        2. Global Law Enforcement Data (p. 40)
        3. US (387-393)
    C. Purposes (p. 32-33)
        1. Sex Trafficking (Elsa's Story)
        2. Child Sex Trafficking
        3. Forced Labor
       4. Bonded labor or debt bondage (Gowri's Story at bottom)
       5. Domestic Servitude
       6. Forced Child Labor
       7. Child Soldiers (also p. 26)
    D. Solutions
       1. Challenges
       2. International Cooperation
       3. Trafficking Victims Protection Act (pp. 46-47) and Country List (54-62)
       4. Big Data and Trafficking (Sneed, Tierney. 2015. "How Big Data Battles Human Trafficking". US News, Jan. 14.
       5. International Justice Mission.
------------------------------------------------- Tue. 10/31

9. Growth in Prison Population

          Supplemental Readings:
          Wagner, Peter. 2014. "Tracking State Prison Growth in 50 States."
          "Trends in US Corrections: 1925-2014." The Sentencing Project.

    A. Data (1925-2013): 
        1. Number of Prisoners
            a. Federal Prisons
            b. State Prisons
            c. Local Jails
        2. Incarceration Rates
            a. By State
            b. By Region
            c. By State (Georgia)
            d. International
            e. By Type of Crime (Drugs) (p. 2-3)
            f. By Race (p. 5)
       3. Policy Implications


10. Shootings of Citizens by Law Enforcement Officers
           Readings:
               "Fatal Force." Washington Post 2016 Police Shooting Database.

           Supplemental Readings: 
               Fryer, Roland G. Jr. 2016.
"An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force." NBER Working Paper #22399, July.
               "Officer-Involved Shootings." Police-One.
               "List of Killings by Law Enforcement Officers in the United States." Wikipedia.
               Black lives matter.
               Fryer, Roland G. Jr. 2016. "Surprising New Evidence Shows Bias in Police Use of Force but Not in Shootings." New York Times, July 11.
               Fryer, Roland G. Jr. 2016. "Roland Fryer Answers Reader Questions About His Police Force Study." New York Times, July 12.
               Lott, John R. Jr. 2017. "Do White Police Officers Unfairly Target Black Suspects?"       
    A. What are the current circumstances/concerns with law ennforcement?
    B. What do the data show in shootings by law enforcement?
    C. What are the policy solutions
        1. Benefits
        2. Costs
    D. Can one provide evidence for discrimination?
    E. Economics of discrimination?
           Supplemental Readings:
           Becker, Gary S. "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Life," The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, Issue 3 (June 1993): 383-409. Just read Section on Discrimination.
        1. Prejudicial discrimination:
           a. Employer
           b. Consumer
           c. Employee
           d. Implications
        2. Statistical discrimination:
------------------------------------------------- END OF CLASS


12. Civil Forfeiture
          Supplemental Readings:
          Bullock Scott. 2010. "Policing for Profit: The Abuse of Civil Asset Forfeiture." April 28. Video.
          Williams, Marian R., Jefferson E. Holcomb, Tomislav V. Kovandzic, and Scott Bullock. 2010. "Policing for Profit: The Abuse of Civil Asset Forfeiture." Institute for Justice. April 28.

    A. Introduction
        1. Definitions
        2.
Examples (p. 16, 19)
        3. Theory of incentives
        4. Growth
(pp. 30-32)
        5. Grades by State
(p. 44)
            Georgia (p. 54) 
    B. History
        1. Modelled on British Navigation Acts (arose from very hard to get jurisdiction over people who are not in your nation.
        2. Most of 19th and 20th century it was used rarely (except in Prohibition with illegal liquor)
        3. Extent and power occurred during war on drugs (1984)
            Dep. of Justice: allowed forfeiture to not go to general fund, but to the agencies enforcing the law
        4. Federal Law Changes in 2000, but limited
    C. Legal Effects of Law
        1. Civil proceeding: burdens of proof are civil in nature (preponderance of evidence)
        2. Burden is on property owners to get property back to prove innoncence (only 6 states don't have burden on property owners)
        3. In most cases, police or prosectors can keep most or all of property that is forfeited (42 states)
            Law enforcement has direct stakes--nicer offices, equipment, and pay (Texas and Arizona)  
    D. Proposed Solutions
       1. Standard of evidence
       2. Property owners should not have the burden of proof
       3. Require tracking on civil asset forfeiture (trasnsparency)
       4. Alter direct for-profit incentive (general revenue or a neutral account)

13. The market for crime
    A. Supply
    B. Demand
        a) Derived demand
        b) Who demands?
    C. Equilibrium
    D. Application-drug markets
    E. What is the optimal level of crime?
        1. Benefits of reducing crime
        2. Costs of reducing crime
        3. How can we change probabilities and punishments to make lowering crime more socially efficient?
        4. What is the relationship between cost per offense and probability and punishment?
 

3. Making Inferences from Data: How to Evaluate Public Policies
    A. What constitutes causal evidence?
    B. What types of arguments do we not want to make?
   C. What problems do we frequently face when using data?

        1. Omitted variable bias
        2. Reverse Causality
        3. Selection Bias
        4. Sample Bias
        5. Survey Bias
------------------------------------------------- Tue. 9/5
        6. Measurement Error
            Example of  inequality
            1) See slides
            2) DeParle, Jason. 2012. "Harder for Americans to Rise from Lower Rungs." New York Times, (Jan. 4).